DIW economists expect mild recession in Germany

The German Institute for Economic Research warned against premature optimism while predicting that a serious economic crisis in the country is becoming less and less likely due to the energy crisis.

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) predicted that the future of the country’s economy has somehow recovered despite the headwind from the energy crisis and high inflation.

Berlin-based DIW announced its December economic barometer for Germany.

Accordingly, the economic barometer remained stable at 82.8 points, unchanged in the range.

The DIW stressed that the barometer is still far from 100 points, which marks 0.3 percent quarterly growth in gross domestic product.

“Economic output is likely to decline slightly during the winter months, but a serious recession is becoming less and less likely and economic prospects are cautiously positive,” the statement said. expression was used.


Noting that energy prices have fallen slightly again recently, the statement said that despite the cold weather conditions in recent weeks, gas storage facilities are still in good condition and gas supply is stable.

Guido Baldi, one of the economists of DIW, said, “We can look at the new year with much less pessimism than we expected at the end of summer. However, it is too soon to be overly optimistic. On the other hand, especially global risks continue to be high. “These risks are not just related to the course of the war in Ukraine,” he said.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) tightening of monetary policy in parallel with high inflation is expected to put pressure on the German economy next year.

In Germany, the government expects a 1.4 percent growth in the economy this year and a 0.4 percent contraction next year.


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